AWEA - Highlighting Feasibility of 30% Wind, Study Shows Large Carbon Reductions

An unprecedented study released this week has reached a number of important conclusions that validate what many wind advocates already say: adding wind energy to the grid significantly reduces fossil fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions, and, although new transmission and some grid operating reforms will be required, there are no fundamental technical barriers to reaching 30% wind.

Funded by the U.S. Department of Energy and released by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the landmark two-and-a-half year technical study of future high-penetration wind scenarios was designed to analyze the economic, operational, and technical implications of shifting up to 30% of the Eastern Interconnection’s electrical load to wind energy by 2024. The area of the Eastern Interconnection encompasses approximately 70% of the U.S. population.

The study considered four scenarios—three examining 20% wind penetration and one looking at 30%. The 20% scenarios ranged from a heavier reliance on electricity being sent from longer distances in the Midwest, home to some of the best wind resources, to tapping more resources (offshore and land-based) closer to load centers in the East. The 30% scenario looked at an aggressive deployment of both approaches.

A major conclusion of the study was that wind energy is a highly cost-effective way to reduce carbon emissions. Based on data in the study, greenhouse gas emissions decreased by more than 25% in the 20% wind energy scenario and 37% in the 30% wind energy scenario, compared to a scenario in which the current generation mix was used to meet increasing electricity demand. EWITS found that adding wind would keep electric-sector carbon emissions well below current levels through 2024, even though electricity consumption was forecast to increase by more than 28% between now and then.

The study also found that carbon emissions and coal use are reduced by similar amounts in all scenarios, indicating that new transmission helps to optimize the electrical system and—contrary to what some transmission opponents have said—does not result in coal power being shipped from the Midwest to New England states. In fact, the study found that coal generation declined by around 23% (or 486 million MWhs per year) from the business-as-usual case to the 20% wind case, and by 35% (745 million MWhs per year) in the 30% wind case.

Another major conclusion of the study was that when wind power resources are aggregated across large areas, wind’s variability is dramatically reduced. In fact, more than 50% of the energy produced by diverse wind resources can be counted on to provide capacity towards meeting electric demand, a figure that is much higher than previously thought.

EWITS also found that the relative cost of aggressively expanding the existing transmission grid represents only a small portion of the total annualized costs in any of the scenarios studied.

“Twenty percent wind is an ambitious goal, but this study shows that there are multiple scenarios through which it can be achieved,” said David Corbus, NREL project manager for the study. “Whether we’re talking about using land-based wind in the Midwest, offshore wind in the East or any combination of wind power resources, any plausible scenario requires transmission infrastructure upgrades, and we need to start planning for that immediately.”

“This ground-breaking study demonstrates the major role wind energy can provide across the Eastern U.S., reducing and stabilizing electricity rates while protecting the environment,” AWEA CEO Denise Bode said in a statement. “It also shows the urgency of transmission reform for both onshore and offshore wind development, because if we wait any longer we will not have the lines soon enough to tap these cost-effective domestic renewable resources.”

“Incorporating high amounts of wind power in the Eastern grid goes a long way towards clean power for the whole country,” said Corbus. “We can bring more wind power online, but if we don’t have the proper infrastructure to move that power around, it’s like buying a hybrid car and leaving it in the garage.”

At an EWITS rollout event just outside of Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, Corbus reiterated that while any of the scenarios are perfectly feasible, they all would require new infrastructure and new ways of doing things. “We can do it, but it’s not a business-as-usual scenario,” he said.

The EWITS Executive Summary and the full study are available online at the email listed below.

For more information please contact Trevor Sievert at ts@windfair.net