US: Natural Power demonstrates accuracy in North American wind energy yield predictions

Jim Adams, President, Natural Power North America, said: “Since 1996 Natural Power has regularly conducted finance grade independent energy yield assessments and operational energy yield analyses. This analysis provides a transparent demonstration of our pre-construction energy yield assessment performance in North America.

“Energy yield estimates are the cornerstone of wind power plant financial models and the accuracy of these estimates is therefore imperative to understand. The industry must demonstrate continuous improvement and continue to develop an understanding of underlying issues behind energy yield prediction discrepancies.

“That said, we are highly confident in our methodologies and the results of this updated validation study continue to confirm our accuracy. We will continue to develop new innovations and learn from our assessment and operational experience and will periodically update this study.”

Natural Power’s Validation Study update – summary of North American project data added:

• Wind farm years: 58
• Turbine years: 3,734
• Turbines: 1,262
• Projects: 18
• MW: 2,265
• Median prediction vs operational output: 99.1%.

A finance grade (often referred to as “bankable”) independent energy yield assessment can be relied upon by lenders or other parties with a financial interest in a wind project. It is a robust and defendable energy yield analysis and uncertainty study. It aims to predict the long-term wind resource and average energy production of a wind farm over its lifetime and quantify the associated uncertainty inherent in these predictions. An independent energy yield assessment is an essential element in securing project funding and aims to provide owners and investors with the confidence to make well-informed financial decisions.

Natural Power has undertaken this 2015 validation study update to transparently demonstrate the performance of its independent energy yield assessments (EYA’s). The study provides a framework that is regularly updated and continually fed with additional projects as Natural Power, and the industry at large, furthers its understanding of wind farm performance and strives for continuous improvement.

Over its 20 year history, Natural Power has provided wind analysis services on over 60 GW of wind and technical due diligence on over 40 GW of wind and solar projects. It currently operates over 150 projects in four countries (UK, US, France, and Ireland). As thought leaders and pioneers in several areas, including the development of wind-specific computational tools, furthering industry understanding of remote sensing in wind assessments, and application of computational fluid dynamics to complex wind projects, Natural Power has pioneered new technologies, methodologies and best-practices to tackle the most complex and challenging issues. Throughout this history, the business has conducted multiple assessments to evaluate and improve its energy yield methodology.