Europe: European offshore industry on the path for a step change in annual capacity installations

With 3.6GW new capacity, 2015 is set to become a record-year for grid-connections, corresponding to a near doubling of the added capacity in 2014. In Europe alone, 3.1GW offshore wind capacity will be grid-connected, with Germany accounting for 75% of added capacity in Europe. After a contraction in 2016, the global offshore wind market is expected to show strong long-term growth at a 19% CAGR from 2015 to 2024 mainly driven by key European markets and China. By 2024, total offshore wind capacity is expected to reach 92GW equivalent to 10% of global wind power capacity.

Looking ahead, the global market is forecasted to grow at a 19% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) globally between 2015 and 2024. Development will slow down in 2016, mainly driven by the transition from the RO to the CfD support scheme in the UK, implying that no grid-connections will take place in the UK. In Germany, Gode Wind 1 and 2 are expected to be fully commissioned in 2016, along with grid-connection of part of the Nordergründe project. The Dutch 600MW Gemini project will also be partly commissioned. After the contraction in 2016, the global market will quickly rebound and grow at a CAGR of 55% from 2016 to 2018 globally and 76% in Europe. 

Competition in key markets have a downward pressure on costs. This trend towards reduced costs will continue in the years to come, and support levels have correspondingly been lower than generally anticipated. MAKE expects LCOE to be reduced from a level of around EUR140/MWh today to around EUR110/MWh by 2020, only to reach a level of 83EUR/MWh by 2025. Hence, offshore wind will be approaching grid parity by 2025.

Turbine ratings are increasing rapidly, and by 2020 the average global turbine rating will increase by more than 60% compared to the average in 2015. Enhanced components and foundations put pressure on the supply chain that needs to meet demand, not least on the current fleet of vessels. New investments are needed in order to cope with installation of larger volumes and per unit sizes of turbines and foundations by 2020. If investments are not carried out in due time, it may have a negative impact on the deployment of offshore wind.

MAKE’s Global Offshore Wind Power 2015 report is a 90-page sector report containing 128 charts, tables and graphs providing in-depth analysis of the global offshore wind power market. Key topics covered include global, regional, and country-specific market assessments, supply-demand trends for turbine assembly, balance of plant and installation, asset ownership trends, project finance trends, and LCOE trends combining insight on the industry’s latest trends to analyse implications for the global offshore wind power market.