UK: Future Energy Scenarios 2015

National Grid published its 2015 Future Energy Scenarios (FES) report which gives an insight into what the country’s energy future might look like out to 2030, based on four different scenarios.

The scenarios take into account differing policy and economic landscapes, and consider the impact they might have upon energy supply and demand. They are designed to help government, consumers and other stakeholders make informed decisions about energy policy and infrastructure investment.

Roisin Quinn, National Grid’s Head of Energy Strategy and Policy, said: “The energy industry is changing rapidly and at National Grid, we are right at the heart of that change. We haven’t got a crystal ball, but our scenarios offer a glimpse into the future, using our unique insight into the trends shaping the energy landscape. Over the past year we have worked with over 230 organisations and the feedback we received is vital to help us produce a range of clear and credible scenarios. Thanks to widespread stakeholder engagement and an array of expertise, we have been able to produce the most accessible and detailed FES report, that we hope the industry and others will find interesting and helpful.”

The four scenarios considered in the report are:

• Consumer Power: A world of relative wealth, fast-paced R&D and consumer spending. Innovation is focused on meeting the needs of consumers who are focused on improving their quality of life
• Gone Green: A world where green ambition is not restrained by financial limitations. New technologies are introduced and embraced, enabling all carbon and renewable targets to be met
• No Progression: A world focused on achieving security of supply at the lowest possible cost. Low economic growth and little innovation means traditional sources of gas and electricity dominate
• Slow Progression: A world where slower economic growth restricts market conditions. Available money is spent focusing on low-cost long-term solutions to achieve environmental targets, albeit later than the target dates

In putting together this year’s report National Grid has consulted the widest group of academics, researchers, industry groups and businesses of any previous FES report to produce the most comprehensive set of scenarios yet.

As well as painting a picture of high level demand, supply and changes affecting the energy industry, the report also include some interesting facts:

• Smart meters: In Gone Green 27 million smart meters could be installed by 2035
• Light bulbs: By 2020, 458 million compact fluorescent bulbs CFL light bulbs could be in use in Great Britain
• Solar: By 2021, the amount of solar PV installed could quadruple to 18GW (gigawatts)
• Cars: By 2035, one in six cars could be electric
• Gas: By 2035 gas starts to replace diesel as a fuel for HGV vehicles owing to economics and lower emissions

Download and read the full document on the National Grid Future Energy Scenarios website: http://www2.nationalgrid.com/uk/industry-information/future-of-energy/future-energy-scenarios/