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Many studies and some hope

In the run-up to the next World Climate Conference on November 30, there have been several new studies in the last few days dealing with the climate future and the achievement of targets. We have compiled links to the latest studies by Oxfam, DNV, UNEP and the RMI and to a presentation by Tony Seba/RethinkX.

Harnessing the Power of S-Curves Source: RMIHarnessing the Power of S-Curves Source: RMI

The most recent publication is a study by Oxfam on the subject of climate justice with a drastic result:

One billionaire is as harmful to the climate as one million people.

Also noteworthy is the study by DNV, which shows a possible and not unrealistic way to achieve the 1.5 degree target:  Pathway to Net Zero Emissions. The study was presented in a 30-minute live video. (On YouTube, start at minute 15.)

The UNEP study, which points out the measures that are still missing and warns of drastic warming of 2.5-2.9 degrees by 2100, fits in with this:  Emissions Gap Report 2023

And finally, something about the situation in China. There are indications that the country could reach the peak of CO2 emissions as early as this year, significantly earlier than the 2030 target set by the government. See a publication by Lauri Myllyvierta/Carbon Brief:

China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are set to fall in 2024 and could be facing structural decline, due to record growth in the installation of new low-carbon energy sources.

Fittingly: Ahead of the CREA annual report on climate change in China, which will be published next week, a survey of experts suggests that China can achieve its CO2 emissions target before 2030, even if limiting emissions is difficult.

This example clearly shows that changes in the energy sector can also take place much faster than many scenarios assume.

Solar and wind energy have become so much cheaper in recent years that they are in the process of displacing fossil fuels for purely economic reasons.
In more and more markets, not only is generation from new renewable plants cheaper than the construction of fossil fuel power plants, but the operating costs of existing fossil fuel power plants are even being undercut.

As this displacement process is self-reinforcing, this sector is currently experiencing exponential growth.
             (More renewables + learning curve => economy of scale => lower prices => more renewables)

For all those who are not yet familiar with Tony Seba from RethinkX and his predictions for the future, a link to his last presentation at WarpNews can be found here. At the bottom of the page you will also find the YouTube video of the half-hour lecture, which I highly recommend.
Here is also the link to the image source at RMI, as well as to the exciting report from RMI on the same topic: X-Change: Electricity - On track for net zero.

M. Tschierschke
study, World Climate Conference, Oxfam, DNV, UNEP, RMI, Tony Seba, RethinkX

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