Who Will Survive the Crisis?

Good news for Vestas, Siemens Gamesa (SGRE) and GE Renewable Energy: Wood Mackenzie analysts conclude in their latest study that the three globally active companies will increase their market share from currently 47 percent - or 32 GW - to more than 60 percent - or 48 GW - by 2028. Overall, the consolidation of OEMs will continue to intensify in the coming years.

Two Chinese manufacturers, Goldwind and DEC (Dongfang Electric), are joining this phalanx and are scoring points above all because of their strong position on their domestic market. Together with the three Western suppliers, these five will dominate three-quarters of the entire onshore wind industry in just under ten years.

"Vestas, SGRE and GE will draw upon strategic relationships with major asset owners to execute large-scale projects while also investing in new products and technologies. Vestas, the clear leader in this space, will see its market share elevated to an average of 20% over the next five years," says Shashi Barla of Wood Mackenzie. "SGRE will surpass 100GW of cumulative installed capacity by the end of 2019, becoming the second turbine OEM after Vestas to reach this milestone."

However, this won't be enough to reach second place in the ranking, as Goldwind will enter the spot there for the first time next year: "Goldwind’s leading position in China, combined with large projects in Australia and Canada, will see the company take the number two spot for the very first time in 2020," says Barla. "Vestas, SGRE, GE and Goldwind will each install around 10GW in 2020 due to surge in US and China market activity."

Particularly strong in the domestic market: GE Renewable Energy (Image: GE Renewable Energy)

Is there any room for smaller suppliers at all? According to Wood Mackenzie, there is - if the companies will concentrate on their respective competencies. However, regional players are facing a tough battle for competition. German manufacturer Senvion, which recently slipped into insolvency, and Indian manufacturer Suzlon, which has been looking in vain for investors for some time, show how quickly things can go downhill.

And although Enercon has just shocked the German market with the announcement of mass layoffs, things aren't so bad for this manufacturer and competitor Nordex: Both companies are expected to strengthen their presence by increasing their investments in new technologies. Nordex will install a record average capacity of 5.5 GW in the next two years, a significant increase of 40 percent over 2019.

However, these installations are likely to take place primarily in foreign markets, as the German market is currently showing hardly any signs of recovering. In line with this, Nordex announced yesterday that it had once again signed deals in Turkey, one of the booming markets at the moment.

China shows how important a strong domestic market is: "Ten of the top 15 turbine OEMs in 2020 will be Chinese, capitalising on a domestic demand surge," says Wood Mackenzie.